CSC 456    Spring 2008

Assignment 3 – Expert Systems with Fuzzy Logic with FuzzyCLIPS

Assigned: 03/26/08

Due: Start of Class on 04/02/08

Task:

· Run the expert system, after loading the original londonweatherfuzzyfinal.clp weather rules file and the original londonweatherfuzzyfinalstart.clp, tracing execution. This serves as a baseline for future changes.

· File 1:

o Add Rules - preferably to a file named something along the lines of yourlastnameweatherfuzzyadded.clp

§ There may be a thunderstorm risk if the weather is hot – sunshine actually seems to help. Add a rule that if the temperature is hot and the clouds are mostly sunny, then predict heavy rain.

· Trace1:  Run the expert system, after loading your amended weather rules file and the original londonweatherfuzzyfinalstart.clp, tracing execution.

· Q1: Does it have a higher rain prediction now? Q1a: Explain why or why not with reference to Fuzzy Logic process. (i.e. deeper explanation than that the rule applies)

· Sensitivity Analysis:

o Experiment with reducing the amount of rainfall today, reducing it from the current fuzzy 1.5 inches. (No need to run dribbles)

o The predicted amount of rainfall doesn’t appear to drop off very significantly.

o Q2: Explain why that is the case.

· File 2:  - preferably to a file named something along the lines of yourlastnameweatherfuzzypressure.clp

o Add Template:

§ Weather prediction can also be based on barometric pressure (particularly change in pressure), in addition to the already used variables. Create a template for pressure, with subsets for rising, falling and steady, using the functions shown in the attached graphs.

o Add Rules

§ If pressure is falling then predict moderate rain.

§ If pressure is rising then predict dry.

· File 3: - (preferably a file named something along the lines of yourlastnameweatherfuzzystart2.clp)

o Update Problem:

§ Create a copy of the start rule (in a separate file) with a hourly pressure change of a fuzzy 0.025

· Trace2:  Run the expert system, tracing execution

· Q3: Does it have a higher rain prediction now? Q3a: Explain why or why not with reference to Fuzzy Logic process. (i.e. deeper explanation than that the rule applies)

· Q4: What problem(s) does this rule set have for predicting rainfall?

Turn In:

· Softcopy of your revised first set of revised rules

· Softcopy of your added barometric pressure file – with template and rules.

· Hard or softcopies of your traces (dribbles)

· Softcopy of your basic start-up client info for the revised problem (with pressure)

· Answers to all questions above (either hard or soft copy).

NOTE:

• I expect that this should be able to be completed mostly in class – I plan 1 full class period to work on it – probably on 3/26,  and possibly a second, depending on the progress of those who work diligently in class on the first day. But, if necessary, a FuzzyCLIPS executable for Windows machines can be easily downloaded from my WWW page. See http://www.lasalle.edu/~redmond/teach/456/resources.htm