CIS 655       Summer 2005      

Assignment 3 – Expert Systems with Fuzzy Logic with FuzzyCLIPS

Due: Start of Class on 07/06/05 (there may be other assignments started before this is due)

NOTE: Any rules in this assignment (mine or from the original source) should not be considered real investment advice.

Task:

· Run the expert system, after loading the original weather rules file and the original londonweatherfuzzyfinalstart.clp, tracing execution. This serves as a baseline for future changes.

· Add Rules

o There may be a thunderstorm risk if the weather is hot – sunshine actually seems to help. Add a rule that if the temperature is hot and the clouds are mostly sunny, then predict heavy rain.

· Run the expert system, after loading your amended weather rules file and the original londonweatherfuzzyfinalstart.clp, tracing execution.

o Does it have a higher rain prediction now? Explain why or why not with reference to Fuzzy Logic process. (i.e. deeper explanation than that the rule applies)

· Sensitivity Analysis:

o Experiment with reducing the amount of rainfall today, reducing it from the current fuzzy 1.5 inches. (No need to run dribbles)

o The predicted amount of rainfall doesn’t appear to drop off very significantly. Explain why that is the case.

· Add Template:

o Weather prediction can also be based on barometric pressure (particularly change in pressure), in addition to the already used variables. Create a template for pressure, with subsets for rising, falling and steady, using the functions shown in the attached graphs.

· Add Rules

o If pressure is falling then predict moderate rain.

o If pressure is rising then predict dry.

· Update Problem:

o Create a copy of the start rule (in a separate file) with a hourly pressure change of a fuzzy 0.025

o Run the expert system, tracing execution

o Does it have a higher rain prediction now? Explain why or why not with reference to Fuzzy Logic process. (i.e. deeper explanation than that the rule applies)

· What problem(s) does this rule set have for predicting rainfall?

Turn In:

· Softcopy of your revised rules (preferably named something along the lines of weatherfuzzy.clp)

· Hard or softcopies of your traces (dribbles)

· Softcopy of your basic start-up client info for the revised problem (with pressure) (preferably named something along the lines of yourlastnameweatherfuzzystart2.clp)

· Answers to all questions above (either hard or soft copy).

NOTE:

• I expect that this should be able to be completed in class. But, if necessary, a FuzzyCLIPS executable for machines like in the lab can be easily downloaded from my WWW page.